Introduction
On Saturday, March 23, 2024, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) Space weather prediction center released its geomagnetic watches for March 24-25, 2024.
Describing the event, it noted that a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)- which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona, associated with an X1.1 flare observed at 23/0133 UTC was expected to arrive at earth late on March 24 through March 25.
NOAA said the timing will manifest as periods of G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely on 24 March and periods of G3 (strong) storming are likely on March 25.
For the effects, the agency allayed the fears of the public, stating that “the general public should not be concerned but may wish to keep informed by visiting its webpage for any forecast changes and updates”.
As predicted, on Sunday, March, 24,2024, at 12:50am, the agency observed moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions for auroral visibility forecasts.Later at 6:28pm on the same day, it announced a severe geomagnetic alert.
At 11:30 pm on the same Sunday, March 24, the agency posted a video summary of solar flares, coronal mass ejection (CME) with the eventual arrival of CME on earth on March 24- all resulting in geomagnetic storms, adding that “the CME progression continues at this time”.
What is a geomagnetic storm?
According to the United States Geological Survey, a magnetic storm is a period of rapid magnetic field variation. It can last from hours to days.
The Space Weather Prediction Centre(SPWC) described it as a major disturbance of Earth’s magnetosphere that occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding earth.
For moderate geomagnetic storms, the agency described it as a less common, moderately intense disturbance in earth’s magnetic field. It often varies intensity between lower levels and moderate storm conditions over the course of some hours during the duration of the event.
On the other hand, a severe geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance in earth’s magnetic field; often varying intensity between lower levels and severe storm conditions over the course of the event.
What are the effects?
For the moderate, the space weather prediction center(SPDC) said there is a slight risk for some controllable power fluctuations in elements of the power grid. Generality negligible impacts for short duration events to spacecraft operations
In severe geomagnetic, SPDC stated that a possible technology effects are ‘increased and more frequent voltage control problems-normally mitigable. Increased possibility of anomalies or effects to satellite operations. More frequent and longer periods of Global Positioning System (GPS) degradation are possible.
Space Weather Prediction Centre Reacts to Dubawa Enquiry.
Dubawa sent an enquiry to the agency for the confirmation of the situation due to its impact on the public perception of the condition of the earth and the engagements of the development on social media.
However, in a response to the enquiry from swpc.customersupport@noaa.gov, the body confirmed that a geomagnetic storm did hit the earth.
“Yes. A G4 – Severe (on the NOAA scales) geomagnetic storm hit the Earth on 24 Mar 2024 at approx 1411 UTC” it said in its response.
Responding to whether this condition affected Nigeria or had an impact on the country, the body responded that much of its impact would not have likely occurred in Nigeria.
“For the most part, you should see little to no impact from the recent G4 geomagnetic storm. If you are associated with the aircraft or flying community, the initial X flare that occurred likely caused HF radio blackouts for some time as the flare was occurring. However, if you are mainly concerned with impacts on Earth, they would likely have not occurred in Nigeria or any other areas near the equator” it Stated.
What else?
According to AP News, every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field flips, meaning its north and south poles switch positions. Solar activity changes during that cycle, and it’s now near its most active, called the solar maximum.
Jonathan Lash, a forecaster at the center, told AP News that a geomagnetic storm of the type that arrived on Sunday can hit Earth a few times a year. During solar minimum, a few years may pass between storms.